The aging of the population also contributes to growth in spending on health care programs and on Social Security. “CBO’s estimation, health care costs per person will continue to rise. “In CBO’s projections, the number of people ages 25 to 54 (the ages at which people are most likely to work) grows more slowly than the number of people age 65 or older, who are less likely to work and who are generally eligible for Social Security and Medicare.”Īs a result, Medicare will take an increasing chunk of deficit spending.
Thereafter, population growth is driven entirely by immigration.” “Deaths exceed births beginning in 2042 in CBO’s projections, largely because of the aging of the population. The lead chart and discussion that follows are from the 64 page 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook of the CBO. If not for the shifts in the timing of certain payments, outlays so far in fiscal year 2023 would have been $536 billion (or 11 percent) more than during the same period in fiscal year 2022. Outlays in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2023 were $5.3 trillion, $473 billion (or 10 percent) more than during the same period last year, CBO estimates. Revenues were 10 percent lower and outlays were 10 percent higher from October through July than they were during the same period in fiscal year 2022. The federal budget deficit was $1.6 trillion in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates-more than twice the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. The above image is from the CBO Monthly Budget Review: July 2023 This time, there will not be a huge baby boomer led recovery.ĭeficit Set to More Than Double from 2022 10-month budget totals for Fiscal Year 2023 from the CBO. Within a few years the debt-to-GDP ratio of the US will topple highs set in WWII. Debt-to-GDP image from the Congressional Budget Office, annotations by Mish. It’s even worse than it looks for reasons I explain. US Debt held by the public is soaring out of sight.
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